Don't let anyone tell you that can predict Forex price movement with scientific accuracy, it's a lie. Prices don't move science but you can make money, here's how...
The reason Forex prices are not predictable is obvious, humans decide the price of any currency and you can't predict what they will do with certainty.
There is a big industry selling Forex robots and gurus selling get rich quick systems, telling you that you can predict prices in advance but common sense tells you this cannot be true - why? Because if you could predict price, everyone would know the price in advance and there would be no market. Prices move because you can't predict them, NOT because you can.
You can make money though!
To make profits you have to calculate and trade the odds successfully.
While you cannot predict human nature with certainty, it is constant and never changes. The emotions of greed and fear are always present and these emotions are reflected in high odds, chart patterns that are tradable for profit.
When you trade Forex, you need to trade like a good poker player, who folds or passes by hands that have low odds and then bets when the odds are in their favour. If you do this and have sound money management, you can make a lot of money.
We all want to be perfect and pick market tops and bottoms in advance but it's simply not possible.
To win at Forex, you need to trade the reality of price change only. Prediction is simply hoping or guessing and you will find your predictions (if you try them) are as accurate as your horoscope.
The best Way to Trade is:
Look at a Forex chart and you will see long trends that last for many weeks or months.
Most of these big trends start and continue from new chart highs or lows. You should therefore trade breaks of important support and resistance levels and follow them, as chances are a big trend will develop. You're NOT predicting, you're trading the reality of price change and increasing your odds of success.
Most traders can't trade breakouts because they think they have missed the start of the move and wait for a pullback to get in. It doesn't come and the trader misses the move.
To build a breakout trading system is easy and will always have the opportunity make money, as markets will always trend.
Simple systems work best in Forex trading and we will show you how to put together a simple, long term, forex trading breakout system, in part 2 of this article series.
Trading the odds and trading long term, is the way to make money and you don't need to predict anything!
One of the differences between the stock market and the forex market is the vast trading that occurs on the forex market. The foreign exchange market
(currency, forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. The forex trading market is a volatile industry. It is also a very lucrative market. However, to be a successful FX trader you need to educate yourself and have a long term plan. The lack of a forex trading strategy will guarantee failure. When starting out as a forex trader it is easy to abandon your plan or lack of a plan. A good forex trading education is a must.
Being well verse in the stock market will assist you with your forex trading. However, to enter into the foreign exchange market it is not necessary to have any prior trading experience. Some basic forex strategy systems are the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecast. The data used in this analysis is; money policy, government policy and economic indicators. Some examples are GDP, exports and imports. The analysis of this data is for a specific business cycle.
Technical analysis
Forex technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called "chartists", may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations.
Before you dive head first into the forex market open up a demo account. A forex demo account is a simulated account where you get virtual money of $25,000 to $1, 00,000. You get live quotes and bids that are part of real forex trade. Once you have master that are ready to take the plunge into the real thing open up a mini account.
A mini account is a great stepping-stone to the big leagues of FX. It allows you to open up an account where the leverage is higher in comparison to standard accounts. With a mini account you are dealing with mini contracts. You can open up a mini account with $250. When you are ready you can move onto a standard account
The forex market welcomes traders 24 hours a day. Forex market opens on Sunday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT), closes on Friday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT). No matter what region of the world you live in you can trade on the forex. As one market is opening, another countries market is closing. This is the continual method of how the forex market trading occurs. An example of forex trades in the western region of the world is USD/EUR and USD/GBP. An example of a forex trade in the Asian Economic regions or the world is JPY/USD and JPY/GBP.
Technology is a beautiful thing. To be involved in these markets you don't have to be awake for every different time zone. Automated analytical forex software applications allow you trade during the middle of the night while you sleep. There are many, different type of automated forex software applications on the market. Some of the most commonly used applications are forex killer, auto- pilot and forex-funnel to mention a few. These applications are used by; professionals and beginners alike with no experience whatsoever. These applications can assist you with a forex trading strategies.
If you are planning to trade in currency then you should know the different ways of reading the forex chart. Due to this reason you should try to gain the knowledge about reading the charts. If you know this then you would be able to earn huge profits in short duration of time. You would find that the experienced trader would always take the proper training before entering into the market of forex. If you are a learner then you should always start the trade with the nominal amount. You should no invest huge amount at a particular point of time.
If you want to learn the ways of reading the forex chart then you can purchase this software that would provide you required knowledge about the forex market. This software would aid you to keep the track of the money that you invest in this market and it would also keep the track of your time that you spend in this market. This software would help you to keep a track of the amount that you have invested in the firm. This software is handy. If you are interested to become a forex trading pro then you should try to take the maximum use of this software. If you use this software then you chart using this software then you would get the perfect knowledge about the forex trading that is offered by the forex market.
Currency trading market is considered to the largest market in the whole world and it one of the busiest markets. You would have problem of keeping the track of the forex market. You would be able to keep the track of the various trends that are prevailing in the market. if you are using the this software as a tool then you should study the changes that are taking place in the forex market. The knowledge that you have gain would aid you to trade in the market.
If you want to install this software then you need to explore yourself to net. You can use different trends and pattern of the forex chart. You can use the special tools that can be generated in short duration of time. You can use this tool to examine the software that you are using. The forex charts would help the trader to take the decisions about the market in which you are dealing. Forex charting software would provide relief to the people that want to become successful and want to get the deal that they want. There are different methods that can help you to the knowledge that you want to have. This would help you to make the future predictions about the forex market. This would help in charting the different types of software. There are various types of software in the market. You need to select the software as per your needs and requirements. You need to be careful in selecting the software for your deal.
A Few Forex Tips To Help You Achieve Success
You can earn a lot of money through Forex and it in fact only requires that you learn from some tips that will show you how to maximize your profits from dealing in foreign currencies. The simplest Forex tip is to use weekly charts to boost your profitability. This means that you have to take the trouble of checking the weekly charts so as to be able to gain a proper perspective of the currency market.
Such weekly charts are ideal for learning and finding out more about the major trends that are taking place and they will also help you understand the proper support as well as resistance levels as too gains insights about entry points.
Don't Overtrade
Another simple Forex tip is learning to avoid from doing too much trading. It pays to understand that fewer trades you enter into the better are the chances that you can realize a handsome profit. It is more important that you concentrate on getting things right rather than indulging in quantity trading. Smart Forex operators earn money from doing the right things well and avoiding doing the bad things. In fact, the more successful traders earn high amounts of money from doing only limited amount of trades.
A healthy appetite for risk is essential to succeeding with Forex and so you have to learn how and when to take risks which however must be judiciously taken and which should not deteriorate into starting to gamble in the hope that you will make a major killing. At the very least a person that is averse to taking risks must abstain from doing Forex deals.
For those people that do small Forex trades it is not a good idea to branch out because it is in fact necessary that they concentrate and focus on their limited trades instead of trying to expand their dealings without having already tasted success.
You can also succeed with Forex by setting yourself realistic targets. The more realistic you are the better are the chances that you will be able to work hard enough to realize your objectives. You should decide to engage you in Forex and then give your all to succeeding and also keep in mind that your targets are not too farfetched or unrealistic.
With these tips in mind you should get started with Forex and bear in mind also that to be successful you will need to learn how to focus your efforts on the best trades that should be used with best odds of succeeding. Weigh your options and set realistic targets and then do your best to realize a profit.
Forex Signal provider is a professional trader who is dedicated to monitoring the market closely and is able to read the price action and can predict its future move. Based on this prediction, he can confidently generates entry signals and send it to his subscribers.
He apply his technical analysis experience in analyzing the price action on the charts to determine the proper entry price, stop loss price and the take profit price, in order to generate a winning trade with high probability.
What a signal provider do for you?
Most of forex signal providers works mostly on EUR/USD currency pair, this is may because it's the pair which constitutes about 40% of the entire forex market movement alone. Also this pair has the less spread among the other currency pairs, so it's very suitable for scalpers and short term traders (intraday traders).
When a Forex signal provider generates an entry signal and send it to his subscribers, he only send the prices' numbers for entry/stop loss/take profit values. He does not tell any information about his analytical methods which led to these values. So, His service does not add any experience to his subscribers at all, the subscriber trader only have the option to open a trading position based upon this signal or not.
That means that the trader should at least has a reasonable level of experience about technical analysis in order to have the ability to evaluate the provided entry signals himself and take the proper decision, so he uses the provided signal just as complementary information which assist his trading decision.
The common mistake which many novice traders fall in is blindly following the provided entry forex signal without even trying to evaluate it themselves. This make them can't take his responsibility for his trading decision, thus when the trade become a loser he blame the signal provider.
However, the signal provider services are very suitable for those traders who work part time, and do not have the advantage of monitoring the market all the day in order to generate their own signals. In such a case, they utilizes these services just as a timing for entering the market, these signals providers give them the exact time to enter and exit the market without the need to send a lot of time waiting these times in front of the screen.
Final note:
As a trader, you should not relay completely on signal provider service. When you generate your own signals, you combine several trading indicators like trend lines, moving average, stochastic, in order to get a high probable trade signal. Meanwhile, providers might choose to employ just one indicator in order to generate their signals, which may not be 100% accurate. This justifies why you should compare and contrast signals between one another and for the movement of the currency price
I have never heard an forex trading system creator claim that his system can give 100% accurate forex signals. However, this rule seems broken by Forex Ambush 2.0. The developers say they are the first and only service to give 100% accurate forex signals.
The system relies on advanced technology developed by a group of 31 experienced traders, continuously developed until it produced 100% accurate results consistently. As the Forex market fluctuates many times a day, This Forex Signals system sends out entry signals (buy or sell) to its members, either by email or by SMS. These trading signals occurs in real time, as the currency fluctuation.
Do You Really Need Forex Ambush?
You may ask a reasonable question: Why do I need to become a member in Forex Ambush service?. And here's the answer: If you are a beginner forex trader, you may have discovered that you are at a great informational disadvantage to the much larger and institutional traders.
These "big dogs" have invested a lot of time and money in order to understand the various features of forex market and their unusual behavior. They have invaluable know-how that makes forex trading very profitable to them.
As beginners, we suffer from the absence of this advantage. However, by using this foreign signals service, we will be at the same level of the big players. This unique forex signals service uses a highly developed intelligence system to replicate the knowledge and skills of professional traders to our interests. That means you will make the profitable trades that the professionals traders makes.
How Forex Ambush Works:
After you join the program, the system will send you real time alerts via email or SMS. These trading alerts tell you exactly what to buy and any relevant details, such as trailing stops.
Forex Ambush 2.0 works with a 5 pip trailing stop and a 20 pip take profit. If the signal falls between 5 pips and 20 pips, Forex Ambush 2.0 gives a trade signal. If it falls outside of this range, Forex Ambush 2.0 advises you not to trade. Forex Ambush does not use hard stop loss technique.
The automated trailing stop and the take profit will close the trade automatically. The system advises you to never close a trade manually - just leave your Forex software running and your computer on and it will take care the rest of the trading process.
Conclusion:
If you have suffered - like so many forex traders - from repeatedly losing trades and feel every time you open a trading position that the market always moves against you to stop you out!, then you should seriously give Forex Ambush a try. If it's a scam, then you will not lose any thing - except a few dollars, but if it delivered to you what it promised, then you will find it the best investment you have ever made.
1 IGNORANT OF NEWS EVENTS
Most ignorant technical traders often have there trading account badly damaged if not wiped out during news event releases. I therefore recommend that you get familiar with economic calendars even if you do not like trading them.
2 OVER TRADING.
Most ignorant traders often over trade in any of the following ways: opening more positions than they should, not knowing when they have exceeded there trading limits. I recommend trading only one position at a time as a beginner.
3 NO TRADING SYSTEM
One of the worst things that can happen to a trader is to chase after pips or dollars without a proven system. To succeed in trading you need a proven and tested decent trading system.
4 NO TRADING PLAN
A plan gives you the road map to your destination. When you have no plan, you will surely not know when you miss the way.
5 NOT KNOWING WHERE TO PLACE STOP LOSS ORDER And have high probability for profits
It is one thing to place stop loss orders, it is another thing to know where to place them in order to avoid being stopped out before price resumes in your analyzed irend and entry direction.
6 NOT KNOWING HOW TO MONITOR MARGIN ACCOUNT.
If you do not know when your account is running into margin call, certainly you will not know when to cut your losses..
7 NOT KNOWING HOW TO IDENTIFY A TREND AND RIDE WITH IT.
You trading system should be able to identify new market trends and , trend corrections and trend reversal.
8 ALLOWING MAXIMUM DRAW DOWN ON AN ACCOUNT
When your account is drawn down by say 50% in one trade, you should know that it will not take you a profit of 50% to return to your previous balance. It will rather take you 100% profit in your remaining balance before the account was drawn down.
The above 8 mistakes put together can result in a margin call.
One thing that contributes so much to the failure of many in taking lasting profits from the forex market is ignorance about what steps to take when making trading decisions. Let us quickly go over to 5 secrets steps to a profitable forex trading career.
STEP1: learn to plot the charts.
If indeed you truly want to have an enduring forex trading career, there is need for you to learn how to plot charts on all time frames. The type of chart you plot are determined by your trading system and strategy. charts are easier to plot on the metatrader4 trading platform.
STEP2: Understand your set up conditions
These are conditions you need to spot before you enter a trade. This is one area many traders are led astray. A trader has to wait for his or her set up conditions to be met before initiating a trade. Most traders make money and give it all back due to failure or in ability to follow the set up conditions included in there trading system.
STEP3: Know your entry points.
These are price levels which offer high probability entry opportunities with low risk. certain trading tools can be of tremendous help in determining these levels. A good and decent trading system should provide you with these tools.
STEP4: Know and respect using stop loss.
Once you have entered a trade, your first aim should be to protect your account. To do these you need to place stop loss order. Please ignore any trading system that encourages you to trade without stop loss order. A decent system should guide you on the best level to place your stop loss with higher probability of winning the trade, you might also choose to use trailing stop to protect your profit. Trailing stop helps to adjust your stop loss order if the trade is moving in your favour.
STEP 5: know your take profit.
As soon as your trading system generates signal, it should be able to give you the profit potentials of the trade. Please note that guess work is not allowed in trading. Guessing can be very dangerous to any trader. You need to run thorough analysis before accepting take any trade with high probability.
Remember you do not need a perfect trading system to be a successful trader. Adhere to these rules and the trade will be in your favour most of the times. Visit www.forexandoil.blogspot.com for free forex trading signals and education. plus how $5100 was turned to $40,000 without lifting a finger
Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.
Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.
Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.
There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.
There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.
Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.
Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.
International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.
The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.
In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.
Beware of the Dog
It’s easy to get sucked into the forex trading market with slick software pitches that promise you the moon and the stars. Don’t fall for the hype, like I did. I learned the hard way that profitable forex currency trading doesn’t happen overnight. It takes years of training, skill, and endurance to penetrate the forex market. All of my professional forex trading associates will agree when I tell you that a forex software package is not the silver bullet to your trading success. The longer you work in the forex market, the better you become at making intelligent forex decisions and identifying the scores of software scams thinly veiled as legitimate forex trading tools.1.Take off your blinders. Don’t believe everything you read. Websites and advertisements are worded a certain, compelling way for a good reason – to make a sale. You’re kidding yourself if you think these software sellers have one iota of a conscience. They don’t and will sleep perfectly fine at night regardless of the number of people they’ve financially burned in any given day.
2.Research, research, research! Before turning over your money, become an expert. This means you have to do some work. There are plenty of review sites and forums out there that offer so-called “unbiased” opinions. But, remember point one – don’t repeat my early mistakes; scrutinize everything you read. To be an expert means you must study reviews, ask questions in forums, and download free trials prior to making your final decision. When it comes to purchasing forex software, there is no such thing as doing too much homework.
3.Know Good from Evil. There are three types of forex software and they range in both price and options. If I were you, I would consider both your budget and level of experience before purchasing. One type of forex software gives you more information and data but may be too overwhelming for beginners, while a second type of forex software allows visibility of trading activity and helps you make smarter decisions. A third type of forex software is designed for the most advanced forex trader and may not be appropriate for your level or frequency of trading. My goal is to help you understand the difference and make the most cost-effective forex software investment decision.
Types of Forex Software
1.Trading Platform – Often inherent in your broker’s Forex system, this software is an all-in-one solution. It gives the trader a wealth of information and basic tools, without a lot of guidance. Great for those who can trade without advice; a beginner might not know what to do with all of the information. With trading platform software, guesswork and luck may help the novice.
2.Signal Software – Inviting more involvement from the forex investor, signal software requires a certain degree of experience on your part. Signal software permits you to witness spread changes and make decisions based on those variances. I would not recommend this type of forex software for the beginner as it is better suited for the more advanced forex trader.
3.Charting Applications – Useful for trend analyses and predictions, forex-charting software is appropriate for the more experienced forex investor. Data streams and features generate alerts on buy and sell recommendations. Forex charting application software can be set up for automated transactions, hence, eliminating the need for human intervention. Newcomers beware - this type of forex software requires a great deal of foresight to be used properly.
4.Forex Trading Robot or Forex Robots - These computer based software programs use various levels of algorithms to predict or trigger buy and sell currency trading orders. Many currency traders prefer using forex robots because these programs are designed to eliminate psychological obstacles when trading currencies. It is important to note that there is no proven software that is designed to work without fault when currency trading. It is believed that large financial institutions have proprietary and advanced trading algorithms or 'black box' forex trading programs which they use for forex trading and keep these secret from their clients.
With forex software, the most important point I can emphasize is that your needs will change as your level of expertise grows. For example, I still use one of the original types of forex software I purchased years ago, but now I understand the complex tools and can take full advantage of the features. Additionally, I have more than one type of forex software in my collection because they all offer something unique.
Forex software is available in many forms: CDs, downloads, and interactive, Web-based programs. Whichever forex software you choose, make sure its credentials support its claims. Forex software needs to be more than functional. It must ultimately deliver the expected results you are anticipating!
Remember to read forex reviews and learn what others are saying about forex software before you buy.
The Power of Suggestion
A forex signal or alert is a communication to you indicating when it’s time to buy a particular currency pair and at what price. Best generated by professional forex signal providers, trained individuals or companies who devote their time aiding in buy/sell decisions, forex traders rely on the advice of these so-called experts when it comes to investing in the forex market.
The credentials and reliability of a signal provider can run the gamut. From just enough forex knowledge to be dangerous to more forex knowledge than is needed, choosing a qualified forex signal provider is no joking matter.
Forex signal providers make investing in the forex market as easy as possible. Depending on the system you choose, forex signals can be either manual or automated and provide entry/exit points for major or pre-selected currency pairs. With manual, the forex signal simply generates a buy alert from the signal provider. With automated, the forex signal both alerts you when it’s time to buy and makes the purchase for you by working together with your bank or broker.
When I first started trading forex, alerts came in the form of telephone calls and facsimiles. Now, with advanced digital technology, forex alerts come in the form of e-mails, SMS (Short Message Service, a way of sending text messages to mobile devices), or desktop software. With so much at stake, signal providers are very good at quickly getting alerts to traders. Simultaneous transmissions enable dozens of private clients, whose investments may vary by millions of dollars, to receive forex signals that pertain to the same currency pairs and price purchase points. This levels out the playing field and affords the small-time investor the same opportunities as the heavyweight.
Forex traders invest at varying frequencies. Day traders buy and sell on the basis of small short-term price movements that happen within a 24-hour period, and must act quickly to keep up with market volatility. Swing traders buy and sell within a one-to-four day period and use trends and patterns to judge the overall intrinsic value of currency pairs. Long-term forex investors, who hold a position for five or more days, study historical behaviors before making a buy/sell decision.
Regardless of how frequently you trade forex and in what quantities, the role of the signal provider cannot be underestimated. Many signal providers lean on forex software systems for advice before generating forex alerts. Others are fortunately positioned to gather directional guidance from the largest banking institutions and brokerage desks – often trading against the all-too charitable trading public. It is no secret that the vast majority of retail forex traders actually lose money and, as a result, there is a breed of signal providers that feeds on this. They gather data from these various organizations, weigh the direction of where the retail trading public is headed, and intentionally provide counter-intuitive signals, accordingly.
Forex charting is another tool that is either used by signal providers or available directly to forex traders for further analysis before a buy/sell decision is made. Live streaming data-feeds, detailed trade analytics, and purported profit-boosting features count among the numerous ways that aid you and your signal provider to invest your money.
When it comes to forex signal providing, the old saying, “You can’t judge a book by its cover” has real meaning. I have visited many forex websites filled with fancy Flash animation and dazzling features that provided unreliable signal advice and practiced unscrupulous trading tactics. As a general rule of thumb, the simpler and more straightforward the site is, the better. Forex Justice is one of the most trusted sites on the Web to learn about traders’ troubles, brokers’ behaviors, and fx currency trading.
I hope that our forex signal reviews provide a safe haven where visitors can get eye-opening information without feeling overwhelmed.
The convenience of trading forex online has created a number of success stories for individuals just like yourself. With the technology being so advanced in the past decade, anyone can take their trading to the next level. This proves extremely easy for people who want to work from home.
Here’s a few Forex Trading Courses we highly recommended:
Forex Trading Made E-Z – A downloadable Ebook, twelve videos as well as many daily clips of real-time trading.
10 Minute Forex Wealth Builder – Step by step video tutorials to make it especially easy to learn so that anyone could follow the instructions and be ready to start building wealth in this fantastic business.
Forex Power Strategy Course – Designed specifically to teach people who have no investing background. You’ll learn how to earn a living in one of the most amazing online businesses you’ve ever seen.
Forex Trading Explained – The most practical introduction to the foreign exchange market you are likely to find. In addition to this it describes in great detail and in a simple style a practical trading system.
Forex Profits Book & Video Program – Deliver extraordinary value at a price that anyone can afford. Bonuses include: 10 Instructional Videos, Free Course Upgrades and Free Ongoing Education. Dr. Jeffrey Wilde even gives you his phone number.
Leonardo of Pisa, aka the mathematician “Fibonacci”, published his Fibonacci sequence in 1202. Fibonacci came upon his now very famous sequence of numbers when he was trying to breed rabbits and figure out how many pairs of rabbits he would have at the end of one year based upon their breeding behavior. This is just the kind of no-nonsense approach that Forex traders are into.
Mistakenly many individuals consider mathematical abstraction as frivolous; however it is rooted into real world mathematical applications. The Fibonacci sequence is useful for making us aware of and then explaining those hidden patterns around us daily.
How can this be applied to investing? Very astute investors understand that there are hidden patterns in the stock market–based on the mass of investors’ behavior. “Buy low and sell high” and “The best time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets” are but two investment aphorisms that not only work, but also come from understanding hidden patterns of the investment markets.
The reason that investment market patterns are so well hidden is because “up close” they cannot be seen. Day to day, hour to hour fluctuations in the investment markets cannot be predicted with any accuracy. But certain overall trends that extend over longer periods of time definitely can be. And savvy investors, including Forex traders, have successfully been using Fibonacci’s number sequence to take advantage and make big profits.
Using the Fibonacci sequence involves a series of numbers. Each following number is the sum of the two numbers before it. It progresses like this 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and into infinity. There are numeral interrelationships within these numerals. For example, take any number; it is roughly 1.618 times the number before it. Anciently the Greeks found number 1.618 reprehensive of the golden ratio which is the supreme essence of balance. This balance is the fundamental strategy of profitable investing
The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.
Fibonacci charts are created through a technique comprising three curved lines that are drawn for the purpose of anticipating key resistance and support levels as well as areas of ranging. First, an invisible trendline is drawn between two points (typically these are the high and low for a given time period). Then, three curves are drawn so as to intersect this trendline at the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Transaction decisions are made at the point where the price of the asset crosses through these key levels.
Next is the retracement – this is when the movement of a stock or other traded commodity reverses direction; this is a reversal which is stronger than the prevailing trend of the stock’s movement. Retracement patterns are looked at closely by investors; a Fibonacci retracement can be used to analyze the odds of a commodity’s price having a larger than average retracement before continuing back on the direction it had before reversal. The trendline is typically drawn between two extremes and is divided vertically by the Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%.
The Fibonacci retracement is widely used by sophisticated traders to find: strategic places for transactions to be placed; target prices; and stop-losses. Other technical tools including Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, and Elliott Wave theory all make use of retracement.
The reason that the Fibonacci sequence is used in investing is simple: it works! Forex traders in particular in particular seem to find it useful in making profitable trades.
About the Author:
Richard U. Olson recommends the state of the art Forex Robot Software that he uses to make consistent profits in the Forex markets. Grab his FREE e-course on Forex Trading Tips to realize your financial dreams. Grab a totally unique version of this article from the Uber Article Directory
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The traditional definition of a forex broker is one who puts buyers and sellers together for a commission or fee. Many forex brokers make their money by charging you a spread, the difference between the buying and selling prices for a currency pair.
Spreads greatly impact your forex returns and vary depending on the type of account you open. As buying low and transacting high is the trader’s goal, a wider spread means you have to pay more when you buy and wind up with less when you sell. In some cases, your broker gets the difference, which is added onto the price of the trade. Spreads often narrow or widen depending on market liquidity and other factors. You can learn a lot by watching the video tutorial on spreads located on our forex guide page. I have worked with many different types of forex brokers and have witnessed the haphazard ways in which clients’ investments were distributed. In many cases, the trading transaction would go into a ‘bucket’, and never actually execute. My heart would go out to the scores of clients who had quit their day jobs, anticipating income from trading forex, only to learn their profits had disappeared due to some alleged violation. In reality, there was no profit to deliver since the buy/sell trade never happened and the broker had to come up with an excuse. These types of brokers operate in what’s commonly known in the forex industry as a “bucket shop.”
From Electronic Communication Networks (ECNs) to retail forex companies, the type of forex broker chosen is a factor in the timeliness and return on your investment. ECNs do not trade against you and act as an Interbank broker in the free market by connecting the major banks and brokerages with individual forex traders. The spreads may be smaller but you know upfront what you’re paying for the service – either a flat fee or commission.
Retail forex companies are glorified bucket shops and are often referred to as market makers, since they essentially create their own trading markets. Spreads are arbitrarily decided, trades are made against you, and profits are distributed at the broker’s discretion. Retail forex companies are attractive to newcomers and those short on cash because they don’t require large investments. If you don’t mind running the risk of having your profits disappear on a whim, then retail forex companies are a good place to learn the ins and outs of forex trading. They allow you to demo trade on their platforms until you know what you’re doing and give you unusually high leverage.
Of the two types of brokers, a forex ECN broker is the more legitimate. They provide a place where banks, traders, and multiple market makers can enter competing bids and offers around the spread amount. Unlike a dealing desk, bank quotes are consolidated and orders are matched to the best bid/offer price on which traders are permitted to trade. Although minimum trade requirements are often higher and leverage is lower, prices are not manipulated, profits can be more stable, and trades are passed to a real trader, the Interbank.
When honestly executed, forex spreads can be a valid indicator of what’s happening with your trade. After years of mistakes and believing everything I was told, I now know to look for the red flags, such as reverse pips, rejected transactions, tight spreads, and delayed executions. These are common strategies used to deceive many forex traders.
The best advice I can give you when selecting a forex broker is to read forex reviews . Learn what others are saying about forex brokers before you make a decision.
When I woke up this morning to trade the NY session and started catching up on the price action of the Forex, equities, and commodities markets I got that gut feeling that said, "don't take a trade, you'll lose". It's been awhile since I sat through an entire NY session without taking a single trade but I'm glad I listened because I probably would have lost on trades today as the markets were very disjointed, choppy, and erratic to kick off the third quarter. My hat's off to all those traders who did make a profit today...
I can't put my finger on one exact thing that caused the markets to become disjointed but it was more a combo of central bank, fundamental, and geo-political factors. The erratic price action really started last evening in the Asian session with Fed Yellen's strong anti-dollar rhetoric. On the prospect of the Fed leaving their interest rate near zero for the next several years, Yellen said:
"It is not outside the realm of possibility; we have a very serious recession, we have a 9.4% unemployment rate, and inflation possibly falling further below the Fed's preferred level; we should want to do more. If we were not at zero, we would be lowering the funds rate"
That kind of central bank rhetoric is about as anti-dollar as it gets and the almost immediate response from the market was to drive the euro higher against the dollar. The reason why market participants sent their money-flows into the euro is because the euro is still yielding a minimum of 75bps higher than the dollar and when compared to the pound sterling, the euro yields a better rate against the dollar, so the euro was one of the main beneficiaries of Yellen's anti-dollar comments.
From a fundamental standpoint, it was mostly a mixed bag of somewhat-bad and not-so-bad data... the data that the S&P 500 and Dow Jones enjoyed most was the ISM report and specifically the ISM Price Index. ISM Manufacturing is still well below the 50 level but as I looked at the various components it's easy to see what the markets got excited about. The production and employment components were both up by over 6% and best of all, the prices component was up by 6.5%.
Remember, higher prices are good for higher-risk, higher-yielding markets, it's what these markets need... any price related components in this type of data that are not deflationary is just another reason to buy. Whenever a piece of fundamental data that is connected to price inflation prints hot or better than expected I've seen a clear pattern for equities to rise and the dollar to fall and this pattern played out again today.
And finally from a geo-political standpoint, the dollar was hammered by more comments from China. At 1158 EST, just as London was closing, these comments from a Chinese finance minister hit the news wires:
"China has asked the G8 Italy summit to discuss issue of new global reserve currency; China requests reserve currency debate at G8"
Within seconds of these anti-dollar comments hitting the wires the EUR/USD jumped up over 60-pips, took out stops at the 1.4200 level and then fell right back down to the point of lift-off after NY closed this afternoon. I'm not exactly sure why the Chinese are talking the dollar down but all I can think of is that they are strategizing way in the future and not so much in the past or present.
The argument that the Chinese shouldn't talk the dollar down no longer holds any water because they have shown a pattern of using verbal rhetoric to depreciate the dollar in recent months. I believe the Chinese are thinking ahead by about 10-years and whatever their ulterior economic and social agendas dictate for the future probably includes the dollar being dethroned as the world's reserve currency.
All in all, it was a weird start to Q3 and it will probably stay weird as the markets deal with a tag-team NFP/ECB event tomorrow morning and Friday's US bank holiday...
NFP and unemployment rate event:
I'm going to get this out of the way now -- do not trade NFP tomorrow. You saw how wild last month's NFP event was and I expect no different tomorrow. The best way to properly manage your risk is to sit on the sidelines, let the market do its thing, and either trade after the dust settles or wait until next week.
Last month's NFP printed way better than expected but I believe that number will be revised lower tomorrow. Last month's unemployment rate will not likely be revised lower but possibly revised higher. As far as the actual market forecasts are currently running, this is what the bank traders are forecasting:
Non-farm payrolls consensus range: -435K to -225K
Unemployment rate consensus range: 9.7% to 9.5%
My NFP forecast: -378K to -414K
My unemployment rate forecast: 9.7%
The ADP NFP report came in much worse than expected at -473K but I do not think tomorrow's government report will breach that level. What Wall St. and the higher-risk, higher-yielders want to see is an NFP print that comes in as it did last month because they are still looking for any news-driven reason to keep buying and to keep prices supported.
The thing to remember is, this employment data from the BLS is hardly reliable and purely manipulated. If the markets are looking for a reason to go up, they will find it within the data... if the profit-takers want a reason to square their books ahead of the holiday weekend, they will find a reason within the data... if big money movers want to push the dollar and USD Index lower, they will find a reason in the data...
ECB interest rate event:
As important as tomorrow's NFP even is, the ECB interest rate policy and Trichet press conference is even more important and should likely have greater affect over the value of the EUR/USD. Monetary policy always trumps a single fundamental event and you can be sure all eyes will be on Trichet at 0830 EST tomorrow morning and looking for any sign or signal to either sell or buy the euro against the dollar.
That's what tomorrow's event is really all about... what to do with the euro... the Eurozone's dismal fundamentals have kept the euro's gains somewhat capped against the dollar and it's been the ECB's verbal rhetoric along with the euro's correlation to equities and commodities which has kept it from breaking below the 1.3750 level. If Trichet and his ECB comrades decide they want to continue their pro-euro stance this should be made clear at the press conference. Conversely, if Trichet wants to help support a Eurozone recovery by depreciating the euro, like the Swiss are doing with the franc, he will talk it down tomorrow.
As far as the ECB interest rate is concerned I see no change and for rates to be held at 1.00%. Trichet said he's not dropping rates this month and I'm going on his word. Obviously if Trichet was playing games with the markets and does decide to drop rates this would be a shock and unexpected move and the euro would sell-off against the dollar.
Central bankers like Trichet and Bernanke have been fairly trustworthy trade indicators in recent weeks, they've been telling the markets exactly what they want their respective currencies to do. So, as you're watching Trichet's press conference tomorrow and you're looking for signs he wants the euro to stay supported, he will say things like:
•ECB interest rates have reached their lowest levels
•ECB interest rates may rise in the near-term
•The ECB is more concerned with inflation and price stability compared to deflation
•Deflation is not at all an issue in the Eurozone
•ECB forecasts show an end to the growth contraction in Europe and signs of a growth recovery are present
•European credit markets are stabilizing and money and credit is expanding
•The European banking system is sound
•The ECB will not monetize any sovereign or commercial debt beyond their already existing program
•The ECB expects German exports to rebound in the near-term
•The employment situation in Europe is improving
•The worst of the financial crisis is over and recovery is right around the corner
If Trichet wants the euro to depreciate he will make comments like this:
•ECB interest rates have not reached their lowest threshold and may come lower in the near-term
•The ECB is open and ready to use more non-standard measures
•The ECB will monetize more sovereign or commercial debt
•The ECB is concerned with deflation/disinflation
•Consumer and producer inflation rates are expected to remain negative in the near-term
•The European banking system remains at risk
•Eurozone growth will contract beyond what the ECB has estimated
•Unemployment will continue rising
•The consumer will remain weak for a longer period of time than anticipated
The points on those two lists are the main things Trichet would say to either appreciate or depreciate the euro tomorrow. I can't predict which Trichet we'll get but I'm leaning towards him making more comments that are supportive of the euro compared to negative comments. The biggest risks for the euro obviously would be an announcement of interest rates being lowered and or more debt being monetized.
Even if you do not trade the EUR/USD you will be well served to watch Trichet's press conference because it's a great learning lesson for how central bank monetary policy and geo-politics drive price action of currencies and how these guys use verbal rhetoric to manipulate the Forex market. You can watch the press conference here.
Manage your risk:
On a scale of 1-10 tomorrow's trading risk is an 11. I really encourage all retail FX traders to practice some patience and good money management by sitting on the sidelines. I usually trade every NFP and ECB event but at this point I'm leaning towards sitting on the sidelines as well. The other risk factor beside these fundamental events is the fact the markets are severely ill-liquid right now. That means it takes far less money to move the market as opposed to what it may take under normal trading conditions when the level of market participation is higher.
The price swings could be very sharp tomorrow and not something you want to find yourself on the wrong side of... you could be on the right side of a market move and 30-seconds later find yourself on the wrong side of a price swing... that's the potential risk for tomorrow. If you can't help yourself from trading I suggest using at least half of your normal entry size. I always recommend for traders to use just half of one percent used margin entries so you may want to cut that in half for tomorrow and Friday.
Finally, a great Jesse Livermore quote to consider:
"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting"
-David
Foreign exchange currency trading is a risky business with much to lose and much to gain. As a professional forex broker and personal trader, I have realized the fast profits this market can reap, while witnessing the dog-eat-dog nature of the beast, in which buyers lose their shirts every minute.
Whether you are a forex trader or just curious about forex currency trading, you owe it to yourself to separate the wheat from the chafe. The Internet is awash in foreign exchange currency trading websites whose sole existences are dependent upon ignorant forex investors. From get-rich-quick forex software schemes to free forex training, forex educational seminars, free forex signals, forex forums, and more, the fraudulence that surrounds the fx trading market is frightening.
- Forex has no central exchange
- Forex trading can be done around the clock
- Forex has no overseeing regulatory commission, such as the SEC
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